Wales 2026: The election that could change everything

The governance of the United Kingdom was overhauled with the introduction of a Parliament for Scotland, and an Assembly in Wales and Northern Ireland.

Some saw this as revolutionary, others as a natural improvement in line with other modern European states. Over the past 26 years we have become used to devolved government and the development of our National Assembly into a Parliament, the Senedd.

Jonathan Morgan

Despite becoming more powerful, and changing its name, some things have stayed constant. Sixty members are elected in a mix of 40 constituencies and 20 across 5 regions. The result has also been familiar. In every election since 1999 Labour have come out on top, either governing alone, in coalition, or with another party’s support. That sense of predictability may soon be over.

Why this election is different

The biggest change is the abolition of first past the post. This has long been Labour’s greatest electoral advantage in Wales. In its place comes a fully proportional voting system, which gives every vote equal weight. Seats will be allocated in proportion to how many votes each party receives in each of the new, much larger, super constituencies.

This is a fundamental shift in Welsh politics. Instead of 60 Members of the Senedd, there will be 96. Instead of 40 small constituencies and 20 regional top-up seats, there will be 16 super constituencies, each returning six members. The move from a mixed system to one that is entirely proportional means no party can rely on old certainties. Smaller parties will have a stronger chance of being represented, and coalition governments will become more likely than ever before.

The rise of new forces

The rapid rise of Reform UK has been the standout political story of the past few years. Their success in polls, local council by-elections in Wales, and high-profile wins in mayoral and county council elections in England suggests they will be serious contenders for seats in Cardiff Bay.

But they are not the only party with momentum. The Green Party, under the new leadership of Zack Polanski, are pushing to make a breakthrough. Meanwhile Jeremy Corbyn has announced a new left-wing party that, despite not yet having a name, claims to have already signed up 23,000 members in Wales. Together these movements mean the Senedd of 2026 could look very different from any that came before it.

What this means for voters

For Welsh voters this election may feel unlike anything they have seen before. Under the new proportional system every vote matters more directly. No longer will parties dominate whole areas on the back of first past the post. Instead the distribution of seats will reflect the actual balance of opinion in each region.

This change could encourage people who have previously ignored Senedd elections to take part, especially those who already vote in UK general elections but have sat out Welsh ones. For others it may mean thinking differently about how they vote, knowing that smaller parties now have a real chance of gaining representation.

What to look out for if these polls prove correct

When the polls close at 10pm there are several big questions that will shape Welsh politics for years to come. Labour are still likely to be the largest party, but the days of easy dominance are gone. If they fall short of a majority, a coalition with Plaid Cymru could be the most likely path to government.

The entry of Reform UK into the Senedd would mark a dramatic new chapter, while the Greens and Corbyn’s new party could also secure their first seats. The expansion to 96 members means we can expect many new faces, and with the new voting system in play, the overall outcome is anything but certain. What is clear is that Welsh politics will not look the same again once this election is over.

Guest blog written by Jonathan Morgan.

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